# Phase 7: Reviewer Robustness — Summary

## Key Findings

### Treatment Validation (Major #1)
- Country-level KAOPEN paths confirm treatment timing for all 13 CCA + key CEE/Baltic cases.
- Policy triggers documented: EU accession, IMF conditionality, Rose Revolution, currency boards.
- Alternative treatment definitions tested: permanent crossing, higher/lower thresholds, jump-only.
- Cohort binning sensitivity tested: exact year, 3yr, 5yr, 10yr bins.

### Exogeneity (Major #2)
- Discrete-time hazard model: does lagged CA predict opening timing?
- If lagged CA is insignificant → supports exogeneity claim.
- Pre-treatment covariate balance with normalized differences.
- Variables with |d| < 0.25 considered balanced (Imbens & Rubin 2015).

### Observable Mediators (Major #3)
- Event-study of governance, financial development, trade around opening.
- Descriptive evidence for 'structural reform channels' hypothesis.
- Clearly marked as descriptive, not causal.

### SCM Power (Major #6)
- Pre-RMSPE determines minimum detectable effect.
- Countries with pre-RMSPE > 5 pp are uninformative.
- MDE at 2× pre-RMSPE level reported for each treated unit.

## Paper Revision Implications
- Reframe triple-diff as suggestive (RI p=0.138), elevate BJS ATT.
- Add treatment validation table as appendix.
- Add balance table and hazard model to Section 3.
- Add mediator event-study as descriptive evidence in Section 9.
- Add SCM power note to Section 6.